Research on risk management strategies for polioviruses

Even though polio no longer causes widespread fear, please take a couple of minutes to learn more about polioviruses and why you should still care about them. In 2001, we launched a collaboration with the U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) with support from the CDC-Harvard Joint Initiative in Vaccine Economics (JIVE) to create useful analytical modeling tools to help decision makers consider the implications of the various global immunization and risk management choices after eradicating wild polioviruses. We thank many contributors for support of our polio modeling efforts. The research led to many presentations and peer-reviewed publications related to the following topics (publication dates, see overview for brief context):

• NEW - lessons learned from overcoming the failure to vaccinate and the role of subpopulations in maintaining transmission (2017)
• NEW - lessons learned from globally-coordinated cessation of serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine for other serotypes (2017)
• NEW - systematic review of poliovirus environmental surveillance studies published in English between 1975-2016 (2017)
• NEW - benefits of temporary recommendations for travel immunization requirements for serotype 1 wild polioviruses (2017)
• NEW - modeling poliovirus vaccine supply and stockpile dynamics during the endgame (2017)
• NEW - characterization of the costs and benefits of using IPV in addition to OPV for outbreak response (2017)
• NEW - remaining prepared and managing the poliovirus endgame risks (2017)
• the potential benefits of new poliovirus vaccines (2016)
• the role of comprehensive screening and effective polio antiviral drugs for long-term immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) excretors (2016)
• the importance of maintaining and intensifying coverage with bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (bOPV) prior to bOPV cessation (2016)
• consideration of the implications of uncertainty in cost assumptions on long-term poliovirus risk management (2016)
• the risks of inadvertent trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine use after coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation (2016)
• implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 OPV cessation and the risks of potential non-synchronous cessation (2016)
• characterization of outbreak response options after OPV cessation and during the polio endgame (2016)
• modeling the risks of immunodeficiency-associated long-term vaccine derived-poliovirus excretors and the potential role of poliovirus antiviral drugs (2015)
• economic analysis of poliovirus risk management policy options for 2013-2052 (2015)
• oral poliovirus vaccine needs for managing the risks of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses during the endgame (2015)
• the impact of different oral poliovirus vaccine formulations in managing population immunity and the importance of vaccine choices (2015)
• health and economic consequences of different options for timing of globally-coordinated oral poliovirus vaccine cessation (2015)
• good news about IPV safety (2015)
• trade-offs associated with different immunization activities in northwest Nigeria and their impact on population immunity to transmission (2015)
• characterization of heterogeneity in childhood immunization coverage in Central Florida (2015)
• managing population immunity to reduce the risks of transmission of imported live poliovirus (2015)
• poliovirus surveillance and the chances of undetected circulation in the absence of detected polio cases (2015)
• the use of integrated analytical models to support global polio eradication efforts (winner of the 2014 INFORMS Edelman Award for excellence in analytics and operations research)(2015)
• modeling polio in Israel (2015, published on-line December 2014)
• the role of IPV in managing the risks of OPV cessation (2014)
• modeling OPV cessation dynamics (2014)
• the potential for poliovirus transmission among the North American Amish (2014)
• modeling strategies to increase population immunity in the high-risk area in northwest Nigeria (2014)
• modeling strategies to increase population immunity in 2 high-risk areas in northern India (2014)
• the need to focus on performance in managing population immunity to transmission (2014)
• supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) for polio vaccines and the role of expanded age groups (January 2014)
• IPV costs and individual and population immunity considerations for national immunization policy makers evaluating the adoption of IPV (2014, published online 2013)
• characterizing poliovirus transmission and evolution using a model applied to diverse situations (2013)
• cVDPV risks and characterization of OPV evolution (2013)
• pre-eradication national polio vaccine decision options (2013)
• modeling poliovirus risks and the legacy of polio eradication (2013)
• current polio global eradication and control policy options, including perspectives from modeling and prerequisites for oral poliovirus vaccine cessation (2013)
• the probability of undetected wild poliovirus circulation after apparent global interruption of transmission (2013)
• the role of risk analysis in polio eradication (2013)
• modeling population immunity to poliovirus transmission (2013, published on-line September 2012)
• poliovirus immunity and transmission quantitative synthesis of expert assessments (2013, published on-line August 2012)
• expert review of the evidence on poliovirus immunity and transmission (2013, published on-line July 2012)
• prevention as the new paradigm in global health (2012)
• trends in the risk of U.S. polio outbreaks and poliovirus vaccine availability for outbreak response (2012)
• development of the concept of an eradication investment case (2011)
• characterizing the challenges associated with evaluating the economics of disease elimination and eradication efforts (2011)
• the economic and health benefits of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (2011, published on-line October 2010)
• building an "individual-based" or "agent-based" model to explore and optimize post wild poliovirus eradication outbreak response strategies
• a framework for optimizing the future use of vaccines from the global polio vaccine stockpile (2010)
• the consequences of priority shifting when seeking to eradicate multiple diseases with discussion of polio (2009)
• the role of system dynamics in our polio modeling research (2008)
• the need for global cooperation on a vaccine stockpile and coordinated OPV cessation (2008)
• uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of our results related to global post-eradication policies (2008)
• the risks, costs, and benefits of global policies for managing polio after eradication (2008)
• the choice of eradication vs. control for polio (this paper won the 2008 System Dynamics Society Jay Wright Forrester Award, and our discussion of system dynamics in polio modeling) (2007)
• lessons learned to date by the poliovirus model collaborators (as of December 2006)
• consideration of the costs and value of global poliovirus surveillance (2006)
• trade-offs associated with polio outbreak response options (2006)
• characterization of the costs of future polio immunization options (2006)
• characterization of the risks of future polio immunization options (2006)
• risk management in a polio-free world (2006)
• the health and financial benefits of historical poliovirus vaccination in the United States (2006)
• the role of risk analysis in global infectious disease policy for poliovirus (2006)
• dynamically modeling poliovirus transmission and outbreaks (2005)
• the decision options that national and international health leaders will face after eradicating wild polioviruses (2003)