What do the risk estimates mean for leaders
of high-income countries?
- The following chart uses a pull-down menu (on the right) to allow visualization
of how the risks of an outbreak (defined explicitly in the manuscript as one
or more paralytic polio cases) in high-income countries vary for different
policy options over time.
- The chart shows the outbreak rate per year for a population of 100 million
people (i.e., 100,000,000) using scientific notation (i.e., 1.3 E-4 means
0.00013 or alternatively 1.3 per 10,000). The analysis relates to conditions
following successful global eradiction of wild polioviruses such that at the
starting time (T0) no wild polioviruses are circulating.
- We assume that IPV represents the only vaccine choice (i.e., no OPV and
"no routine" options). For these countries, the only thing that
matters is containment (enforced or not).
- We emphasize that all of the results shown in the charts include all risks
characterized in the paper (i.e., those from cVDPVs, iVDPVs, unintentional
and intentional releases, etc.).
- NOTE: The estimates of the probability of at least one outbreak during the
first 6 years and first 20 years after (T0) only apply
to a population of 100 million and a linear scaling approximation may not
be appropriate (particularly for relatively larger annual outbreak rates).
- Please refer to the full paper for important technical details related to
High-income countries (Select from pull down: IPV/No SIAs/Either risk case/Either
Population Immunity at T0/Containment enforced or not):